Watch Latest report officially Position all the catastrophes that could wipe us out in video 2016
Here's no such thing as a scale of every the bad things that could really happen to you and me, but if there were, a 'global catastrophe' would have to rank pretty much close to the top of it, no?
These kinds of terrible happenings – defined as "events or process that would lead to the deaths of about a tenth of the world's population, or have a similar impact" – might only be hypothetical for now, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be study them, assessing their causes and risks, and annoying our best to prevent them.
Which is where the lately released Global Catastrophic Risks 2016 report comes in. Published by the Swedish Global Challenges base in collaboration with the University of Oxford's Global Priorities plan, the report – updating previous year's similarly gloomy assessment – outlines the key risk factors that could gravely threaten our way of life on the planet.
Sure, it might sound like amazing from a disaster movie – and Hollywood mines this very territory every year for its blockbusters – but global catastrophes actually do occur, although not in particularly current world history (for which we should be grateful).
Examples comprise pandemics such as the Black Death, estimated to have killed as many as 200 million people (approximately 20 percent of the world's inhabitants) in the 14th century.
More just, the Spanish Flu in 1918 is estimated to have killed between 3–5 percent of the world's population (technically not a global catastrophe per the above meaning, but near enough). And the Cuban Missile Crisis, had things worsened, could have wiped out significantly more than presently 10 percent of the world's peoples.
So what are the universal catastrophes we're most at risk from now? According to the report, the most likely high-risk global catastrophic proceedings that could occur in the next five years are pandemics – either natural, or engineered by humans – and the view of nuclear war.
Other high-risk threats – but ones careful less likely to wreak havoc in the next five years – are catastrophic climate alter, catastrophic disruption from artificial intelligence (AI), and the potential failure of geo-engineering, which refers to how our attempt to address climate change via things like carbon sequestration could finish up backfiring.
Low-risk threats comprise external events like the possibility of an asteroid impact or a super-volcanic eruption, and "unknown risks", as the account explains:
"Indeed, experience over the previous century suggests that many of the most important future risks may be at present unknown. presently as in the early 20th century it would have been not possible to forecast nuclear weapons, catastrophic climate change, or bio-technology risks, it may be that a lot of of the future important global catastrophic risks are not yet within sight."
Importantly, the report doesn't presently outline these risks, it also contains advice on how humanity might be able to stop these catastrophes from occurring. These are mainly things for governments, NGOs, and investigate organisations to take on board, but it couldn't hurt to take a look yourself. The one thing we can't afford to do is disregard them:
"Despite their scale, the risks of universal catastrophes receive limited attention. One reason is that many of these risks are unlikely in any agreed decade. But even when the probability is low, the sheer magnitude of an adverse outcome warrants captivating these risks seriously. A global catastrophic risk not only threatens everyone alive today, but also future generations. Reducing these risks is so both a global and an inter-generational public good."
If you want to find out extra, be sure to check out the full report. It's a fascinating, sobering analysis of the kinds of dangers humanity actually needs to be aware of – although probably not amazing to read right before leaving to bed. You've been warned!
These kinds of terrible happenings – defined as "events or process that would lead to the deaths of about a tenth of the world's population, or have a similar impact" – might only be hypothetical for now, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be study them, assessing their causes and risks, and annoying our best to prevent them.
Which is where the lately released Global Catastrophic Risks 2016 report comes in. Published by the Swedish Global Challenges base in collaboration with the University of Oxford's Global Priorities plan, the report – updating previous year's similarly gloomy assessment – outlines the key risk factors that could gravely threaten our way of life on the planet.
Sure, it might sound like amazing from a disaster movie – and Hollywood mines this very territory every year for its blockbusters – but global catastrophes actually do occur, although not in particularly current world history (for which we should be grateful).
Examples comprise pandemics such as the Black Death, estimated to have killed as many as 200 million people (approximately 20 percent of the world's inhabitants) in the 14th century.
More just, the Spanish Flu in 1918 is estimated to have killed between 3–5 percent of the world's population (technically not a global catastrophe per the above meaning, but near enough). And the Cuban Missile Crisis, had things worsened, could have wiped out significantly more than presently 10 percent of the world's peoples.
So what are the universal catastrophes we're most at risk from now? According to the report, the most likely high-risk global catastrophic proceedings that could occur in the next five years are pandemics – either natural, or engineered by humans – and the view of nuclear war.
Other high-risk threats – but ones careful less likely to wreak havoc in the next five years – are catastrophic climate alter, catastrophic disruption from artificial intelligence (AI), and the potential failure of geo-engineering, which refers to how our attempt to address climate change via things like carbon sequestration could finish up backfiring.
Low-risk threats comprise external events like the possibility of an asteroid impact or a super-volcanic eruption, and "unknown risks", as the account explains:
Importantly, the report doesn't presently outline these risks, it also contains advice on how humanity might be able to stop these catastrophes from occurring. These are mainly things for governments, NGOs, and investigate organisations to take on board, but it couldn't hurt to take a look yourself. The one thing we can't afford to do is disregard them:
"Despite their scale, the risks of universal catastrophes receive limited attention. One reason is that many of these risks are unlikely in any agreed decade. But even when the probability is low, the sheer magnitude of an adverse outcome warrants captivating these risks seriously. A global catastrophic risk not only threatens everyone alive today, but also future generations. Reducing these risks is so both a global and an inter-generational public good."
If you want to find out extra, be sure to check out the full report. It's a fascinating, sobering analysis of the kinds of dangers humanity actually needs to be aware of – although probably not amazing to read right before leaving to bed. You've been warned!
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